Sunday, November 14, 2010
Broadcast Purgatory
I can't see the ending of the Simpsons because stupid football cut off the beginning on the DVR and broadcast companies are so behind technology that they intentionally put up barriers so it isn't available on hulu yet. They need to get it through their heads that "channels" are an artifact from last century. The only media that is time sensitive is live broadcasts. Just embrace HULU or equivalents as the MAIN viewing platform and get rid of DVR. Then people have to watch commercials again but are not at the mercy of live television interference. This is where things will be in a few years and i can't stand feeling like i am in the middle of a river on a small wet stone.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Why do it if a machine can?
Things are getting a lot easier (especially if you have a smart phone) and i have the strange feeling that the majority of people are afraid of this trend. For instance information is so easily accessible it's nuts. Language has become a joke. I don't even have to spell words even close to correct and my phone offers up a list of possible words to select from. Even if that is to hard i can simply speak the word at the phone and it will recognize it. If i don't even know where to begin vocally i can simply take a picture of something and google goggles will search based on the image bypassing the need for language. I seriously think this is where we are heading. I sit here and type out English words knowing full well that this form of communication is dying a slow death. Language is simply a way to communicate ideas in the absence of sensory demonstration. With portable machines linked to networks designed to massively transmit audio and video what real need is there for language.
To add to this new internet world is a great invention that just came to light this past week called Youtube leanback. This is a feature of you tube that strings together videos consecutively so you aren't required to intervene. Very similar to the living room relic which is quickly becoming obsolete. I can't get enough of this new service. I don't want to be bothered with having to pick what comes next. Plus judging a clips value on a still plus some bit of english or foreign language is more information than i need to evaluate a 20 second clip. I would spend more time deciding on the clip than the run time of the clip. Giving the viewer the ability to force advance the clip is key, this prevents boredom. If i wanted boredom i would just turn on the TV.
To add to this new internet world is a great invention that just came to light this past week called Youtube leanback. This is a feature of you tube that strings together videos consecutively so you aren't required to intervene. Very similar to the living room relic which is quickly becoming obsolete. I can't get enough of this new service. I don't want to be bothered with having to pick what comes next. Plus judging a clips value on a still plus some bit of english or foreign language is more information than i need to evaluate a 20 second clip. I would spend more time deciding on the clip than the run time of the clip. Giving the viewer the ability to force advance the clip is key, this prevents boredom. If i wanted boredom i would just turn on the TV.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Give into the night....
i just saw a commercial where a dude with a feature phone got hosed trying to to a girl with a smart phone. The commercial was best buy piggy backing off the EVO and was really stupid but it is a milestone in my eyes.
These commercials are posed to influence people on a almost instinctual level. The message is "you need a smart phone to attract members of the opposite sex". This message has been applied to so many products over the years from cars, to clothes, to sunglasses, to beer, the list goes on. On the surface most people disregard this message and laugh at the commercial. However ad agencies aren't successful by luck, they study statistics relentlessly. Advertising is a purely empirical world so if you see a commercial advertising a reputable company it's likely they are paying a large ad company lots of money to disseminate this seemingly stupid and juvenile message. They aren't doing it because they personally believe the message or think the target audience will take the face value of the message, it's because the ad agency has the statistics to back up the approach. However this approach doesn't always work, it really depends on where the product or service is in market acceptance. You won't see this approach with the slap chop or snuggie because they are small niche gifts. Until today i didn't think I'd see it used for cell phones.
In this example the milestone is that smart phones have reached a point where they are approaching mainstream. We can thank Apple, HTC, and Google for this. I personally can not wait to see what second quarter cell phone sales figures look like. Not only for the always interesting war between android and apple, but also for more eye opening figures of how much smart phones are gaining on feature phones. Everyday i hear about people moving from features to smart phones. I also hear more about people switching from iphone to android. Just today i talked with a colleague of mine who has an iphone for 3 years at least. I asked him if he would be getting the new iphone. He said no, that even though the new iphone looks considerably better than his current model, he is much more likely to jump ship and get the HTC incredible. He mentioned AT&T's poor service and Apple's overbearing need for control as the two influences in his decision. I immediately encouraged his intentions citing the many pro's of the incredible.
Feature phones will be a severe minority in the world of mobile communications. It is merely a matter of time, and i can not wait. The larger the market the more services and companies will cater to it. The last player will obviously be the government but imagine a world where all you need to leave you house is your cell phone. Life will simplify. Clothes will change. Garments with multiple pockets will become unnecessary. However purses will still hold on but the ratio of useful contents to useless will decrease exponentially. A good question is will wallets or coin purses that match the main purse still be manufactured and sold? They will serve absolutely no purpose. I mean at that point neither does the purse but something has to match the shoes.
These commercials are posed to influence people on a almost instinctual level. The message is "you need a smart phone to attract members of the opposite sex". This message has been applied to so many products over the years from cars, to clothes, to sunglasses, to beer, the list goes on. On the surface most people disregard this message and laugh at the commercial. However ad agencies aren't successful by luck, they study statistics relentlessly. Advertising is a purely empirical world so if you see a commercial advertising a reputable company it's likely they are paying a large ad company lots of money to disseminate this seemingly stupid and juvenile message. They aren't doing it because they personally believe the message or think the target audience will take the face value of the message, it's because the ad agency has the statistics to back up the approach. However this approach doesn't always work, it really depends on where the product or service is in market acceptance. You won't see this approach with the slap chop or snuggie because they are small niche gifts. Until today i didn't think I'd see it used for cell phones.
In this example the milestone is that smart phones have reached a point where they are approaching mainstream. We can thank Apple, HTC, and Google for this. I personally can not wait to see what second quarter cell phone sales figures look like. Not only for the always interesting war between android and apple, but also for more eye opening figures of how much smart phones are gaining on feature phones. Everyday i hear about people moving from features to smart phones. I also hear more about people switching from iphone to android. Just today i talked with a colleague of mine who has an iphone for 3 years at least. I asked him if he would be getting the new iphone. He said no, that even though the new iphone looks considerably better than his current model, he is much more likely to jump ship and get the HTC incredible. He mentioned AT&T's poor service and Apple's overbearing need for control as the two influences in his decision. I immediately encouraged his intentions citing the many pro's of the incredible.
Feature phones will be a severe minority in the world of mobile communications. It is merely a matter of time, and i can not wait. The larger the market the more services and companies will cater to it. The last player will obviously be the government but imagine a world where all you need to leave you house is your cell phone. Life will simplify. Clothes will change. Garments with multiple pockets will become unnecessary. However purses will still hold on but the ratio of useful contents to useless will decrease exponentially. A good question is will wallets or coin purses that match the main purse still be manufactured and sold? They will serve absolutely no purpose. I mean at that point neither does the purse but something has to match the shoes.
Friday, June 4, 2010
Japanesse style...
So the HTC EVO 4G launched today. I'd like to take a second to highlight how this phone is going to be a unique specimen in cell phone evolution. It has two cellular radios. One for 3G service which is pretty ubiquitous at this point and one that works with Spring's new WiMAX system which is only available in select cities. This phone is the most capable phone on the planet because it is the only phone that has the hardware, software, and network capability to engage in video conferencing. This is a huge step from what Alexander Graham Bell developed in 1875. But Ironically this device will use this capability the least out of the tons of other things it can do. Simply because communication is a two way street. There has to be another person with an equally capable device to make this work. Since the EVO is the only one, there will be very few options for using this. Not only that but both callers have to be in the right city, that and they won't be able to chat for that long since the 4G radio and the bandwidth necessary for video conferencing are both extremely battery heavy. Don't get me wrong i think this technological direction is inevitably awesome and will be common place in 2 years. But now that Froyo can give you 100% of the internet in the palm of your hand the bulk effort of the market needs to shift. The software and hardware of the mobile world has been shot out of a cannon in the 2 years and has left both the communication infrastructure and the power supply technologies in the dust. Again i don't want to give the wrong impression. I think it's great that i all i have to consider before trying something on my phone is "is this activity worth the battery?" not "i wonder if my phone will be able to do this". It's like doing a steam vs. recovery or overhead purity study on a LPG fractionation column every time i decide to turn on the GPS for some reason. The fact that the software has out developed the infrastructure is really no surprise. I may be making a novice statement but to me Software engineering is different from all other disciplines because there are no physical unknowns. It is all a matter of generating the right code. The other disciplines are always struggling with discovering and understanding nature and the properties of materials and chemical and electrical systems. In fact years of engineering research can be exhausted only to find out that the original idea is not physically or economically possible, safe, or economically feasible. This is where the phrase "back to the drawing board". This is why the battery and the cell phone towers are now the limit to what we can do with mobile technology, these technologies rely on manipulating things in the physical world rather than the virtual world. The EVO 4G is a great step in mobile technology, but by the time the support systems necessary to facilitate everything it can do have caught up, this device will be a thing of the past.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
New beginnings
For a while now i have been frustrated with the short comings of the computer tools i use on a day to day basis. I have been a helpless end user with no outlet for my frustration other than to complain. I am on the other end of the stick with operation of a large piece of a 180K bbl/day oil refinery at my day job so i know what it's like to be on the other side. Now that i have left the shackles of the closed code world with my smart phone i feel like there is some potential to migrate to the other side in computers. I have a lot of catching up to do since my C++ class freshman year of college but i could have aced that class in a whiskey fueled black out. I have no excuse not to give this a try.
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Phone Wars
I am becoming addicted to not just cell phone but a cell phone that hasn't even released yet. Worse yet since it hasn't released i am not just sustaining off of news about release of the phone. This phone is the HTC incredible. So gripping is my addiction that i have put together the following review.
Currently it appears there are 4 cell phones which will be the front runners of technology for the rest of the year. None of these phones are currently available but will (mostly likely) be by the end of the summer. They are:
Nexus One for Verizon
HTC Incredible
HTC EVO 4G
Iphone 4G
Since they have not released yet they can't be judged by reviews or sales figures so i have put together a Google trend of the 4 contenders below.
As you can see all of them have been gaining momentum since the beginning of April. The abrupt appearance of the HTC EVO 4G is not a mystery since this handset was not known to the world until CTIA (as the event tag shows). It gained significant momentum pretty quick since it is in my opinion the best phone on the list.
The Iphone 4G is obviously on top for a majority on the coat tails of it's predecessor. If you ask me this will release last of all four. Apple will most likely see what is most popular from the other three, integrate them into the 4G Iphone and then add more claims to the lawsuit against HTC. I stand by my claim that apple is evil.
An interesting anomaly in the data shows >100% increase in traffic regarding the Verizon nexus one. This was during the time leading up the CTIA when the world thought Verizon was going to use this venue to launch it. However Verizon did nothing of the sort. That is why this fizzled back to the background linear progression almost inline with apple.
Verizon seems to have a new approach to releasing new phones. Also highly anticipated at CTIA was the HTC incredible which is speculated to launch any day now. But instead of formally announcing the release Verizon will not say anything official. Instead every 3 - 4 days some small bit of "proof" that the incredible is going to be available eventually. These have mostly been in the form of screen shots or cell phone pictures of Verizon employee systems for training or programing of the incredible. Now whether these employees are acting alone or being prompted, Verizon is benefiting from the seemingly inadvertent press. If this was a real leak the security would have tightened after the first leak. My guess is this is Verizon's new strategy. It is likely that the incredible is not equivalent to the EVO 4G but by covertly building suspense without actually releasing the specs they can create a die hard following guaranteeing huge sales for a product they won't even officially announce. The funny thing is it's working... I can not wait for this phone...
Currently it appears there are 4 cell phones which will be the front runners of technology for the rest of the year. None of these phones are currently available but will (mostly likely) be by the end of the summer. They are:
Nexus One for Verizon
HTC Incredible
HTC EVO 4G
Iphone 4G
Since they have not released yet they can't be judged by reviews or sales figures so i have put together a Google trend of the 4 contenders below.
As you can see all of them have been gaining momentum since the beginning of April. The abrupt appearance of the HTC EVO 4G is not a mystery since this handset was not known to the world until CTIA (as the event tag shows). It gained significant momentum pretty quick since it is in my opinion the best phone on the list.
The Iphone 4G is obviously on top for a majority on the coat tails of it's predecessor. If you ask me this will release last of all four. Apple will most likely see what is most popular from the other three, integrate them into the 4G Iphone and then add more claims to the lawsuit against HTC. I stand by my claim that apple is evil.
An interesting anomaly in the data shows >100% increase in traffic regarding the Verizon nexus one. This was during the time leading up the CTIA when the world thought Verizon was going to use this venue to launch it. However Verizon did nothing of the sort. That is why this fizzled back to the background linear progression almost inline with apple.
Verizon seems to have a new approach to releasing new phones. Also highly anticipated at CTIA was the HTC incredible which is speculated to launch any day now. But instead of formally announcing the release Verizon will not say anything official. Instead every 3 - 4 days some small bit of "proof" that the incredible is going to be available eventually. These have mostly been in the form of screen shots or cell phone pictures of Verizon employee systems for training or programing of the incredible. Now whether these employees are acting alone or being prompted, Verizon is benefiting from the seemingly inadvertent press. If this was a real leak the security would have tightened after the first leak. My guess is this is Verizon's new strategy. It is likely that the incredible is not equivalent to the EVO 4G but by covertly building suspense without actually releasing the specs they can create a die hard following guaranteeing huge sales for a product they won't even officially announce. The funny thing is it's working... I can not wait for this phone...
Saturday, March 27, 2010
Communications problem
This past week at a CTIA (Cellular telephone industries association) conference it was highly speculated that Verizon wireless would debut one or both of their up coming phones. These being the availability of the nexus one on the Verizon network and also the HTC incredible. Verizon debuted neither and instead only demonstrated their new found compatibility with skype. However Sprint did debut the HTC EVO 4G which will be available this summer. This phone has some definite pluses over both of the speculated Verizon phones including the ability to be a hot spot, bigger screen, and my favorite two cameras one of which would be used for video conferencing.
Until this week i was eager to here a release date for the HTC incredible and was convinced i was going to buy it as soon as it came out. Now I'm not so sure. The longer Verizon waits to announce a release date, the more i am considering leaving Verizon for sprint and this obviously better phone. However if Verizon releases the incredible next week this idea will vanish and i will remain a happy Verizon customer for the next 2 years.
This issue highlights my ever complex relationship with Moore's law. Both of these phones represent points on what i call the Moore's line of innovation and development. For smart phones this line has some pretty intense curvature at this point in time so a 2 year contract basically grantees that your next phone will be a generational jump. However i have to "settle" eventually or I'll never be able to reap any of the benefits of new generation technology.
Right now i can see the Moore's line in front of me and can justify the incredible if and only if it is available now. Three months from now this phone will look old compared to the EVO 4G. I know i am not alone in this thought. Many news article have came out over the past few days criticizing Verizon for "missing the boat". I have to say I'm with them. I can see Verizon loosing considerable share of the smart phone market if they wait much longer. The droid was a good step but that was 4 months ago, that's a long time on the current stretch of the Moore's line. To be competitive in this market you can't wait around. Verizon may be planning to announce the incredible release on Monday and have it in stores by Friday, which will make my worries all for naught, but until yesterday when it was clear Verizon's lips were sealed i had not considered leaving at all. Now i have looked at Sprint's coverage and plans and even calculated what early termination costs would look like for me and my fiance, all because Verizon left the door open by with holding information.
Until this week i was eager to here a release date for the HTC incredible and was convinced i was going to buy it as soon as it came out. Now I'm not so sure. The longer Verizon waits to announce a release date, the more i am considering leaving Verizon for sprint and this obviously better phone. However if Verizon releases the incredible next week this idea will vanish and i will remain a happy Verizon customer for the next 2 years.
This issue highlights my ever complex relationship with Moore's law. Both of these phones represent points on what i call the Moore's line of innovation and development. For smart phones this line has some pretty intense curvature at this point in time so a 2 year contract basically grantees that your next phone will be a generational jump. However i have to "settle" eventually or I'll never be able to reap any of the benefits of new generation technology.
Right now i can see the Moore's line in front of me and can justify the incredible if and only if it is available now. Three months from now this phone will look old compared to the EVO 4G. I know i am not alone in this thought. Many news article have came out over the past few days criticizing Verizon for "missing the boat". I have to say I'm with them. I can see Verizon loosing considerable share of the smart phone market if they wait much longer. The droid was a good step but that was 4 months ago, that's a long time on the current stretch of the Moore's line. To be competitive in this market you can't wait around. Verizon may be planning to announce the incredible release on Monday and have it in stores by Friday, which will make my worries all for naught, but until yesterday when it was clear Verizon's lips were sealed i had not considered leaving at all. Now i have looked at Sprint's coverage and plans and even calculated what early termination costs would look like for me and my fiance, all because Verizon left the door open by with holding information.
Friday, March 26, 2010
Ignorance is Bliss
I just finished reading an article in the 3/13-3/19 issue of New Scientist that has left me unusually troubled. The article stated that a couple US states have started mandating that public schools integrate a "balanced approach" to teaching about climate change. The article then begins to state that several studies have shown that creationists are statistically more likely to be man made global warming naysayers. The existence of this demographic is what is particularly troubling since this particular demographic commonly referred to as evangelical Christians is also the source of the major pro-life movement who don't want safe sex taught in schools.
My perception of how this group view the world is best described by this sentence:
"God has created the earth for us to do our best to increase the population density as high as possible with out any repercussions."
Now this viewpoint is extremely dangerous. Uncontrolled population growth is directly responsible for our current carbon emission rate which is due to the lack of contraceptives. Now the evangelical viewpoint fits perfect in the theory of evolution (that they refuse to accept). In pre-modern societies excessive procreation was commonplace to ensure genetic security since life expectancy was so low. If a couple only tried to have 1 or 2 kids there was a low chance that either child would live long enough to reproduce, therefore the societies that preached massive procreation were more likely to survive the ages. This value was ingrained into the cultures of the successful societies since it was one defining characteristic that made them so.
Obviously things have changed so why has this one ideal so hard to expunge from society? I believe the answer is hope. Hope that the statement above is true. Hope so strong that amid excessive amounts of contradicting evidence that this hope remains.
My hope is that we can rid the world of this dangerous hope. One thing i think we'll get us there is the site Wikipedia. I have always shuttered at the idea of charity since i can't get over the idea of normal charity just being a band aid and that the real problem can always be traced back to over population. But i can say with confidence that i will be contributing substantial contributions to Wikipedia once i have the financial standing to do so. My contributions will be aimed specifically to ensure that Wikipedia is forms that is available to all ages and un-blockable by parental controls.
My perception of how this group view the world is best described by this sentence:
"God has created the earth for us to do our best to increase the population density as high as possible with out any repercussions."
Now this viewpoint is extremely dangerous. Uncontrolled population growth is directly responsible for our current carbon emission rate which is due to the lack of contraceptives. Now the evangelical viewpoint fits perfect in the theory of evolution (that they refuse to accept). In pre-modern societies excessive procreation was commonplace to ensure genetic security since life expectancy was so low. If a couple only tried to have 1 or 2 kids there was a low chance that either child would live long enough to reproduce, therefore the societies that preached massive procreation were more likely to survive the ages. This value was ingrained into the cultures of the successful societies since it was one defining characteristic that made them so.
Obviously things have changed so why has this one ideal so hard to expunge from society? I believe the answer is hope. Hope that the statement above is true. Hope so strong that amid excessive amounts of contradicting evidence that this hope remains.
My hope is that we can rid the world of this dangerous hope. One thing i think we'll get us there is the site Wikipedia. I have always shuttered at the idea of charity since i can't get over the idea of normal charity just being a band aid and that the real problem can always be traced back to over population. But i can say with confidence that i will be contributing substantial contributions to Wikipedia once i have the financial standing to do so. My contributions will be aimed specifically to ensure that Wikipedia is forms that is available to all ages and un-blockable by parental controls.
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